It could take more than ten years for NHS cancer services in England to recover from the impact pandemic, according to a report from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).
The body also estimated that the proportion of cancers diagnosed while still highly curable fell to 41% last year, down from 44% pre-pandemic.
During the first year of the pandemic, 369,000 fewer people than expected were referred to a specialist which the IPPR estimated led to 19,500 missing cancer diagnoses.
While the incidence rate of cancer has not changed, 187,000 fewer episodes of chemotherapy and 15,000 fewer episodes of radiotherapy were performed, it said.
“Behind these statistics are thousands of people for whom it will now be too late to cure their cancer,” the IPPR added.
Referral backlog to 2030
The report laid bare the severity of the situation now facing the NHS and cancer patients in England.
Even if cancer services are able to be maintained at 5% higher than the level of 2019, it would take until 2030 to address the referrals backlog for suspected cancer cases, while it will take until 2028 and 2033 to make up for missed chemotherapy and radiotherapy treatment respectively.
Increasing NHS activity by as much as 15% compared to 2019 could clear the backlog by the end of next year, but that would require significant investment.
“Achieving this relies first and foremost on a larger workforce, more diagnostic and treatment equipment, and more physical space to provide care in,” the IPPR said.
However, the IPPR believes the government’s funding announced so far is not likely to be enough to provide the extra capacity for cancer services, and running the NHS “hotter” would have consequences for workforce retention, service access and quality, and patient outcomes.
‘Severe consequences’
Despite being among the more resilient NHS services throughout the pandemic, the IPPR estimates delays in cancer referrals during the first wave have undone several years of improvements in survival rates from lung, breast and colorectal cancer.
It added that national progress on missing patient backlogs across the cancer care pathway has been slow and there is considerable catch up to be done in diagnostic and treatment services.
“There have been widespread disruptions across the cancer care pathway – screening, referrals, diagnostic and treatment services have all seen reductions in activity. Unmitigated, the consequences will be severe,” it concluded.