Advisers in the health and protection markets overwhelmingly expect a majority Labour government to be installed from the coming general election, polling by Health & Protection has found.
Yesterday Rishi Sunak surprised most of the country and Westminster insiders by calling the general election for 4 July, far earlier than the late autumn timing expected by most analysts.
And intermediaries from across the sector believe it will be Sir Kier Starmer leading a Labour government into 10 Downing Street on 5 July.
Advisers, brokers, consultants and other intermediaries were surveyed at Health & Protection events this year and all resoundingly expected a change in government.
The expectation may not be too surprising given consistent polling figures giving Labour a substantial lead and by-election and local election results over the last two years.
However, the scale of the margin far exceeds those national measures making for a very bleak outlook for the Conservatives.
Only 6% back Conservatives win
More than 100 advisers and brokers voted in polls at Health & Protection’s Health Summit in February, Protection Forum in April, and IPMI Summit in May.
Overall, 76% said they expected a Labour government to be installed, while 18% thought there would be a hung Parliament or some form of coalition.
Just 6% thought the Conservatives would return for another five-year term.
Attendees at the Health Summit were the most chastening for Sunak, with 80% predicting a Labour victory and only 5% a Tory majority.
These figures were almost identical at the Protection Forum with 79% predicting a Labour success and just 7% a Conservative win – the highest figure the Tories gained.
Meanwhile, IPMI Summit delegates were slightly less bullish on Labour’s prospects with two thirds (64%) expecting a Labour majority, with a coalition or hung Parliament increasing to 21%.
Only 6% expected a Conservative win.