For many globally mobile people and organisations the world appears to have become a more confusing, risky and potentially dangerous place over the last year with geopolitical movements expanding into full-on wars.
Most prominently, conflict in the Middle East has led expats in the hub to reassess their options; some have chosen to up sticks and relocate to Asia-Pacific or parts of Europe.
But others, who have built a life in the region, are choosing to remain.
On top of this, national regulatory activity is continuing to mean decision-making is more complicated as visa open and close and health insurance requirements expand.
With the only certainty being future uncertainty, with expats and organisations alike needing to adapt to ongoing turbulent times, international private medical insurance (IPMI) cover continues to be a compelling factor in supporting people through volatile times.
No mass exodus
Setting the scene, James Wood, regional security director, Northern Europe at International SOS, tells Health & Protection conflicts such as in the Middle East in recent months, have not necessarily triggered a mass exodus of expats.
“But they have fundamentally changed what organisations, and their expats, think about their presence, risk tolerance and their contingency planning for sudden onset events that could precipitate a short-term relocation,” Wood says.
“Generally, those organisations that maintain a strong expat presence during conflicts are those that have critical operations in the location, for example energy, logistics, defence or humanitarian sectors, who require a continued footprint.
“Likewise, those organisations that had established and mature risk, incident and crisis management plans and processes in place were far better placed to identify and manage an escalating situation and make quicker and more effective decisions in the context of their own risk tolerance,” he adds.
Would-be expats reassessing options
Though Mark Jephcott, senior relationship manager at Utmost, concedes geopolitical volatility has potentially changed the game for high net worth individuals (HNWIs) and has led to a rapid reassessment of international plans among this group.
“Periods of instability tend to trigger a flight to security, superseding tax considerations,” he says.
”Italy and Switzerland in particular have strengthened their appeal and people leaving the UK will be more likely to focus on destinations within Europe.”
A key consequence of all of this volatility, Jephcott reveals, is that wealthy families are diversifying their geographic footprint by opening up multiple branches of family offices as they seek greater optionality to hedge jurisdictional risk and safeguard their wealth.
“This is also accelerating general global mobility among HNWIs – a structural trend that was already well underway, with younger family members far more internationally mobile than their parents,” he adds.
Middle East is causing concern
Of course not all expats are fleeing conflict zones as Diana Haydar, director – direct sales at Nasco, points out.
“Expats from stable regions such as Europe or the UK may find it more difficult to accept geopolitical uncertainty, especially when relocating with families,” Haydar says.
“Responses vary depending on how established individuals are in their host country,” she continues.
“Long-term residents with strong roots are more likely to remain, while others may temporarily relocate their families while continuing to work remotely where employer flexibility allows.”
A key reason for this desire to stay is faith in the authorities in places like the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Haydar maintains.
“In the UAE, strong confidence in government stability and safety measures means that many expats who choose to leave often do so temporarily, with the intention to return,” she adds.
“High-net-worth individuals and investors tend to take longer-term decisions and may diversify their presence across locations such as Switzerland, Singapore, or their home countries.”
UAE still leading the pack
Claire Hargreaves, managing director for EMEAA at Trawick International, goes even further, describing the UAE as “still leading the pack” when it comes to attracting talent.
“This is thanks to a very smart mix of 10-year golden visas, zero income tax, and massive investment in lifestyle and infrastructure,” Hargreaves continues.
And Abu Dhabi is making a huge push into the financial and family office space, pulling in wealth managers who used to be based in London or Singapore, Hargreaves adds.
“While Singapore is still the gold standard for corporate packages in Asia, its soaring cost of living is forcing companies to look for alternatives,” she continues.
“Because of this, Malaysia is winning people over, with Kuala Lumpur offering a fantastic, budget-friendly option. Southeast Asia as a whole is drawing a new wave of senior remote workers, especially with Thailand’s long-term visas and Vietnam’s fast-growing tech economy.”
Return to Kyiv, exodus from Lebanon
Hargreaves has also picked up on differing risk appetites among expats amid “a lot of resilience” in active conflict zones.
“A surprising number of Western professionals have actually gone back to Kyiv, and tech talent has largely stayed put in Israel,” she continues.
“For these expats, the safety risk is balanced against clear professional purposes and excellent salary premiums that can sit 40% to 60% higher than before the conflicts.”
The decision to leave is not one expats rush to and when they do, they tend to follow very specific routes, Hargreaves explains.
“The ongoing crisis in Lebanon has accelerated the departure of its professional class, with many moving to Cyprus and Greece – both of which have done a great job positioning themselves as safe regional hubs – or heading down the Gulf corridor to the booming job markets in Dubai and Riyadh,” she adds.
Corporate tax is a factor
But global conflict is not the only factor turning individuals into expats, with corporation tax shifts playing a key role, according to Kevin Melton, global head of IPMI at IMG.
“Regulatory changes, particularly shifts in corporate taxation, are influencing the movement of our expat clients,” Melton explains.
“For example, the significant increase in corporation tax for online gaming companies in Gibraltar, effective from April this year, has impacted the sector.
“Rising costs are pushing businesses to find efficiencies, including reassessing their geographic footprint and workforce locations.”
Onerous compliance requirements
Joe Thomas, managing director at April International UK, points to a plethora of factors driving moves overseas including taxation, visa policies and residency requirements.
“Changes to tax regimes, visa eligibility criteria and residency rules can significantly affect both the financial attractiveness and practical feasibility of living and working abroad,” Thomas tells Health & Protection.
“We’re seeing greater scrutiny around tax residency, social security obligations and employer compliance requirements, particularly as remote and hybrid working models across borders become more common.
“For employers, ensuring compliance across multiple jurisdictions is now a major consideration when managing internationally mobile workforces,” he adds.
Digital nomad and remote-working visas
And while some countries are pulling up the drawbridge, others are making moves to attract expat talent, with a growing number of countries introducing dedicated digital nomad and remote-working visas, Thomas explains.
“This is making it easier for internationally mobile professionals to live and work abroad legally for extended periods,” he continues.
“Spain’s digital nomad visa, Portugal’s D8 visa and the UAE’s virtual work residence visa are all examples of governments creating clearer routes for remote workers and globally mobile talent.
“These kinds of policies can make certain destinations more attractive, particularly where they are supported by strong infrastructure, access to healthcare and a competitive lifestyle offer.
“Both individuals and employers are now taking a much closer look at the long-term costs and implications of international moves. Increasingly, relocation decisions are being shaped as much by policy and regulation as they are by career opportunities or lifestyle considerations.”
Changes to immigration pathways
Though it is not as if regulatory challenges are anything new for seasoned expats as Dave Hilton, UK leader for global mobility solutions at Mercer Marsh Benefits, points out.
“Regulation around benefits evolving regularly is not a new challenge and 70% of our clients are telling us they understand these requirements and have solutions in place that meet them,” Hilton continues.
“People teams are more prepared than ever and with quality advisers supporting them can proactively prepare and adapt to regulatory changes to ensure their mobility programmes support their global expansion goals.
“Changes to short, medium and long-term immigration pathways are also having an effect on business sponsored and employee-initiated talent mobility.”
More deliberate approach
But another emerging trend highlighted by John Kaye, vice president of market development at UnitedHealthcare Global, is a more deliberate approach to mobility.
“Global employees are weighing not just opportunity, but access to care, stability and the strength of local infrastructure before making decisions,” he maintains.
And in terms of winning the war for expat talent, organisations are having to adapt by developing a more holistic approach.
“From a global perspective, the markets that are successfully attracting talent are those taking a holistic approach, combining streamlined visa and residency programmes, favourable tax and regulatory environments, and sustained investment in high-quality healthcare and infrastructure,” Kaye says.
“At the same time, regions facing instability are focusing on retention through enhanced support, particularly in health and wellbeing.
“Confidence in access to trusted, high-quality care is fast becoming one of the most powerful levers in both attracting and retaining international talent.”
Whole of family decision
But these uncertain times also mean the decision to take an assignment is not solely the preserve of individuals as Kate Fitzpatrick, global mobility practice leader for UK and Ireland at Mercer, notes.
“For many employees and their families, uncertainty acts as a brake on mobility. When the external environment feels unstable, the perceived personal risk of moving rises sharply,” Fitzpatrick continues.
“Concerns around safety, schooling, healthcare, partner careers, housing, immigration status and long-term job security can make even attractive assignments feel too exposed.
“In this context, mobility is no longer assessed only as a career opportunity; it is judged as a whole-of-family risk decision.”
Building career insurance
However this is a two-way street as for some, uncertainty can act as an accelerator to the taking up of an assignment.
“In a more volatile labour market, international experience can be seen as a form of career insurance: a way to build relevance, resilience and employability,” Fitzpatrick continues.
“Some employees may view cross-border movement as a route to greater economic security, better quality of life, access to stronger institutions, or escape from domestic political or social instability,” she adds.
“For others, especially highly skilled professionals, mobility offers a chance to position themselves where growth, innovation and opportunity are concentrated.
“In that sense, mobility becomes not just a response to organisational need, but a proactive personal strategy.”
As for the future, IMG’s Melton expects conditions to remain turbulent in the near term, which will continue to shape global mobility patterns.
“However, we are still forecasting overall growth in our IPMI portfolio this year, reflecting the continued need for international coverage despite uncertainty,” he adds.
“That said, growth is not uniform, with clear regional variations driven by geopolitical and economic conditions, as well as shifting corporate strategies around location and talent.”