Long-term sick up 500,000 post-Covid as MSK issues and young adults hit hard

The number of working aged adults who are economically inactive to due to long-term sickness has risen by half a million since the start of the pandemic, according to official data.

The Office for National Statistics data showed mental health issues among the economically inactive have returned to pre-pandemic levels but musculoskeletal (MSK) issues are on the increase.

While over 50s continue to be the primary contributors to increases in economic inactivity, the biggest relative increase was seen among younger age groups.

 

Economically inactive up by 500,000

According to the data, while the number of economically inactive people in the UK was around 2m as of spring 2019, this figure hit around 2.5m by this summer.

This rise in long-term sickness started before the pandemic, but since the pandemic hit the UK in early 2020, the number of people out of work because of long-term sickness has risen by 363,000.

When comparing the second quarters of both 2019 and 2022, the number of people inactive because of long-term sickness who reported their main health condition as “other health problems or disabilities” rose by 97,000 (41%), the largest of any category.

There was not a particular category for long Covid in the data, however the ONS pointed out it was unlikely to be a main contributor to the increases as the biggest year-on-year increase was seen between 2019 and 2020, which only covered the very early stages of the pandemic.

ONS data on long Covid in the UK, shows around 0.8% of those who were economically inactive in the four weeks to 3 September also reported they had long Covid that was limiting their life a lot – equivalent to around 75,000 people, according to labour market figures covering June to August 2022.

 

MSK issues on the rise

For musculoskeletal issues, between Q2 in 2019 and 2022 the number of economically inactive people who reported problems or disabilities connected with the back or neck rose by 62,000 (31%), the second largest increase after “other conditions”.

The biggest year-on-year increase was between 2021 and 2022.

The mental health data shows the number of economically inactive people reporting depression, bad nerves and anxiety as their main health condition has returned to pre-pandemic levels, after increases in 2020 and 2021.

However, the number reporting mental illness and nervous disorders rose 22% over the same period, with the sharpest increases seen after 2020.

 

Young adults hit hard

In terms of age groups, while older people continue to make up the majority of those inactive due to long-term sickness, the largest relative increases in recent years have been among those aged 25 to 34 years.

More than half (55%) of those out of the workforce because of long-term sickness in Q2 2022, around 1.3 million people, were aged 50 to 64 years – partially reflecting how the prevalence of disability and chronic health conditions increases with age.

Since the same quarter in 2019, the number of people aged 50 to 64 years who were economically inactive because of long-term sickness rose by 183,000.

The biggest relative increase was seen among those aged 25 to 34 years, who made up 11% of the figure in April to June 2019 and 14% in 2022 – an increase of 97,000. Of these, nearly 60,000 (61%) were men.

The increase among this age group has been more pronounced since the start of the pandemic.

Among those aged 16 to 34 years, the largest increase in long-term sickness was for mental illness, phobias and nervous disorders, which rose by around 20,000 – a 24% increase.

This was followed by progressive illnesses such as cancer, which rose by around 14,000 (up 69%). This age group was the only one to see an increase in depression, bad nerves or anxiety.

Both older age groups saw a decline in the number of people reporting progressive illnesses. While all age groups saw a rise of long-term “other health problems or disabilities” as the main health condition, the largest increase was among those aged 50 to 64 years.

 

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