Nearly 25% more working-age adults are expected to be diagnosed with major illness by 2040, according to a report from independent charity the Health Foundation, released today.
That represents an increase of some 700,000 people, up from 3 million to 3.7 million people.
And a total of 80% (540,000 people) will be from more deprived areas, with significant implications for labour markets and entrenching stark health inequalities, the Health Foundation says.
The report finds that, without action, stark health inequalities are projected to persist up to 2040, with people in the most deprived areas of England likely to develop major illness 10 years earlier than those in the least deprived areas.
They are also three times more likely to die by the age of 70.
Handful of conditions
The analysis finds that a handful of conditions contribute to most of the health inequality such as chronic pain, type 2 diabetes and anxiety and depression, which are projected to grow at a faster rate in the most deprived areas.
These conditions have a significant impact on quality of life and may limit people’s ability to work for long periods of time.
They are also typically managed by GPs or in the community, underlining the importance of investing in primary care and focusing on prevention and early intervention.
Government action needed
The report says action from government, public services and employers is needed to address rising levels of ill-health in England.
The report focuses on inequalities in major illness in England, notably among working-age people.
It says that growing ill-health will continue to significantly impact people’s lives and the economy.
With many employers already facing significant challenges caused by rising economic inactivity, the report says that this challenge is not going away and could lead to more people leaving the workforce – thereby reducing labour supply and impacting efforts to increase economic growth.
The Health Foundation said this is the first analysis of its kind into current and future inequalities in diagnosed illness and the second report from a major research programme led by the Health Foundation’s Real Centre in partnership with the University of Liverpool.
The first report projected that the total number of people living with major illness would increase to 9.3 million in 2040, an increase of 2.6 million people from 2019.
The report concludes that action beyond the NHS is needed to address poor health and that policies focused on the risk factors of ill health – smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity and harmful alcohol consumption – are essential but insufficient to tackle health inequalities.
In October, the Health Foundation said that around 3.7 million people were working with a ‘work limiting’ health condition restricting the type or amount of work they can do.
Precious asset
Jo Bibby, director of health at the Health Foundation, said: “Good health is our most precious asset, and a healthy workforce is the backbone of any thriving economy.
“We are already seeing the impact of poor health on the economy, with record numbers of people out of the workforce.
“Without action, the number of working-age people living with major illness is set to increase, particularly in the most deprived areas of the country.”
Ann Raymond, economist at the Health Foundation’s REAL Centre, said: “The findings from this report clearly demonstrate how people living in more deprived areas develop major illness earlier, live for longer in poor health and die younger than their counterparts in less deprived areas.
“These inequalities will remain stubbornly persistent over the next two decades if current trends continue.
“This report should be a wake-up call for politicians ahead of the general election about the need for action to address rising ill health – our future health and prosperity as a nation depends on it.”