The number of patients waiting for treatment through NHS England remained at 7.2 million at the end of December, according to latest data.
The figure was published a day after the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned it was likely there would not be meaningful progress on reducing the number for at least a year.
According to the NHS data, the overall waiting list was unchanged at 7.2 million for a second consecutive month after increasing in October.
However, the 54,882 patients waiting more than a year and a half was up by 5,921 or 12% from the November figures.
The 406,035 patients waiting more than a year and 1,234 patients waiting more than two years were largely unchanged from the previous figures.
At the end of December 2022, only 57.6% of patients waiting to start treatment had been waiting up to 18 weeks, thus not meeting the 92% standard, which the government has failed to meet since 2015.
‘Flatline for the next year’
In its latest report the IFS noted the total number of people waiting more than a year for treatment has risen from 300,000 in February 2022 to 410,000 in November 2022, an increase of 35.8%.
Prior to the pandemic, this number was effectively zero with 1,845 waiting a year in February 2020.
But the IFS warned that the more fundamental challenge was that the NHS had so far struggled to increase the number of people it was treating from the waiting list each month.
As a result, the overall size of the waiting list has continued to grow – as has the number of people waiting for more than a year for treatment.
In reviewing how the NHS was performing and the future of waiting list, it’s most likely projection was that waiting lists will “more or less flatline for the next year, and start falling slowly but steadily from the middle of next year”.
This was based on the NHS will be able to increase treatment volumes significantly, but by less than planned by the Conservative government in its plans announced a year ago.
“There is nothing remotely certain about this. But our assessment is that for waiting lists to start falling meaningfully this year – as the prime minister has all but promised – it would require one of two things to happen,” the IFS said.
“One, the NHS achieves a truly remarkable increase in how many patients it manages to treat.
“Or two, the number of people joining the waiting list for treatment stays unexpectedly low – whether because they do not think they need NHS care or because they are unable to access it.”
‘Use all available capacity’
David Hare, chief executive of the Independent Healthcare Providers Network (IHPN), said: “Today’s NHS waiting list figures of 7.2 million show that despite the huge efforts of staff, the numbers of patients waiting for planned care aren’t coming down.
“If we are to make progress, it’s vital that the NHS makes use of all available capacity in the health system to ramp up activity and ensure patients can access the treatment they need.
“This includes maximizing use of the independent sector and ensuring patients can make informed choices.
“Recent IHPN research conducted with the Patients Association found that patients could cut over three and a half months off their NHS waiting time by choosing an alternative provider, and travelling on average just 30 minutes by car.
“But with almost half of the public unaware of their right to choose, much more needs to be done to ensure people are fully aware of their options.”