NHS waiting lists could increase to between 9 million and 14 million by autumn 2022, according to analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
The IFS analysis reveals that between March 2020 and May 2021 around 7.4 million fewer people joined NHS waiting lists than before the pandemic.
The body set out four scenarios illustrating the NHS’ sensitivity to the number of these so-called missing patients returning to NHS waiting lists.
In its first scenario where 80% return over the next year and the NHS operates at 90% of its 2019 capacity this year and next, and then at 100% capacity from 2023 onwards, the IFS expects waiting lists to soar to 14 million by autumn 2022 and continue to climb, as the number joining the waiting list exceeds the number being treated.
In its second scenario where 65% of missing patients return and the NHS operates at 95% capacity for the full period, the IFS anticipates waiting lists to rise to 11 million within a year and then continue to climb to over 15 million by the end of 2025.
In its third scenario, where 75% of patients returned and the NHS operated at 100% capacity this year and next, and managed to add an additional 5% of capacity from 2023, the IFS says waiting lists would rise before falling gradually, but by the end of 2025 the waiting list would still be around 8.6 million – almost double pre-pandemic levels.
And in its fourth scenario, where 70% of patients returned, the IFS anticipates the number of people waiting for treatment to rise to over 9 million next year, and would only return to pre-pandemic levels in 2025. This would require the NHS to increase capacity by 5% in 2021 and 2022 compared with 2019 and then by 10% in 2023 onward.
Health and Social Care secretary Sajid Javid has warned NHS waiting lists could hit 13m, tweeting recently that the backlog for Covid appointments is “sadly going to get a lot worse before it gets better”.
Commenting on the findings, Max Warner, a research economist at the IFS and an author of the analysis, said: “More than 4 million people were on an NHS waiting list even before the pandemic.
“Covid-19 has only made matters worse, as millions of people have missed out on treatment and millions more haven’t even been referred onto the waiting list to begin with.
“There is a real risk that if the NHS cannot find effective ways to boost its capacity – a challenge at the best of times, let alone after a major pandemic – then much longer waiting lists will be with us for years to come.”