Why anti-microbial resistance is a threat for health and protection insurers – Gray

David Gray, senior consultant actuary at Broadstone

The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is one of the top 10 global public health threats facing humanity.

AMR occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites no longer respond to medicines, making people sicker and increasing the spread of infections that are difficult to treat, leading to illness and death.

AMR is one of the strategic priorities detailed in the UK Health Security Agency’s Strategic Plan for 2023 to 2026 and global leaders approved a declaration to support the global response following the UN’s General Assembly on 26 September.

The UK’s second five-year national action plan (NAP) references an estimated 7,600 deaths directly from infections resistant to antibiotics in 2019 as well as 35,200 deaths as an indirect result of infections resistant to antibiotics.

The WHO’s campaign cites significant human costs to AMR: “Limited treatment options, extended hospital stays, constant medication, prolonged loss of income, medical debt, poverty, family loss, grief.

“The burden keeps adding up, and lives are seriously impacted, in some cases fatally.”

These all bring significant ramifications for wider society as well as the insurance and protection market.

 

What does it mean for insurers?

The potentially large effects of AMR are relevant for insurers in the health and protection market.

Increased spread of serious illnesses inevitably means that claims would rise while health issues could also become more complex and expensive.

Increasing likelihood of sickness and longer sickness periods are likely to have knock-on consequences on premiums which would have to rise to cover growing claims.

It is vital therefore that providers of income protection, life assurance, health cash plans and private medical insurance (PMI) providers consider AMR alongside other urgent issues such as climate change in scenarios and sensitivities as part of their own risk assessments and other key tasks, including pricing.

This may be implicit or explicit and, like the connected challenge of climate change, a narrative can prove useful by increasing senior management awareness and engagement.

Insurers should also make sure they review management information, ensuring health codes cover the appropriate granularity of pathogens to identify and monitor the relevant risks to their business.

Insurers’ communications could also play a role in the wider education strategy with the key to prevent infection being in the interest of all parties.

 

Trouble with ticks

As well as ensuring the operational fundaments, insurers must keenly monitor issues as they arise, especially on a local level.

As we saw through the pandemic, sicknesses can spread quickly with significant health impacts.

Indeed, the WHO reported worldwide “extensive overuse” of antibiotics to treat hospitalised Covid-19 patients during the pandemic which did not improve clinical outcomes but potentially increased the “already serious and growing threat of antimicrobial resistance”.

Those who are not prepared for these issues could be left exposed and face serious commercial repercussions.

One current example we have seen is around commentary on local developing risks such as Lyme disease spread by ticks.

Health publications have commented on the potential for climate change to contribute to AMR and in June the Lancet reported “a rising trend in tick climatic suitability, amplifying the exposure to feeding ticks, and involving the potential transmission of associated pathogens.”

The NHS website cites: “Most people with Lyme disease get better after antibiotic treatment” but “a few people … continue to have symptoms, like tiredness, aches and loss of energy, that can last for years.”

Accordingly, exposure to Lyme disease and actual incidence should be considered as part of the wider monitoring systems used by health and protection providers and insurers.

The numbers of Lyme disease cases are small but they are an example of vector-borne diseases that underline the need for consideration of AMR, especially with the potentially compounding effects of climate change, in insurers’ risk frameworks.

 

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