Long-term care sector looking more resilient than some analysts suggest

The long-term care and social care sectors have shown “admirable strength and resilience” over the past year – in financial resilience as well as everything else they have achieved.

That is the central finding from a report by real estate powerhouse Christie & Co.

The first wave of the pandemic saw a “tragic” number of unforeseen resident deaths resulting in average occupancy levels in care homes falling to around 80%.

Operational challenges, including the sourcing of PPE and managing staff absences due to sickness or self-isolation, also posed huge problems for the care sector.
But Christie & Co’s report suggests that the situation has “certainly improved” and, during the second wave, homes were much better-prepared in terms of having the equipment, resource, and the support needed.

The reports goes as far as  to state that: “Following increased testing and other innovations such as dedicated COVID-19 secure visitor areas and most recently the vaccine roll-out, Christie & Co anticipates a gradual recovery in occupancy as admission levels increase during Q2.”

Investors both in the care sector and in real estate more generally should have confidence, the report states.

But it adds:”Unsurprisingly, 93% of care operators said they feel their business has been impacted by Covid-19.”

Almost half of respondents to researchers said they expect it will take between one to three years for the sector to recover.

But the report also notes that 37.7% are “more optimistic” and think that recovery will be seen within the year.
More than a third (35.5%) of respondents said they are planning on selling their business or some assets in 2021 and 29% said they are planning on acquiring”.

A spokesperson for Christie & Co said that the figures “indicate an active transactional market this year”.

The full report, ‘Business Outlook 2021: Review. Realign. Recover’, is available here.

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