Life insurance premium increases will “slow significantly” to 1% this year across the globe, according to the Swiss Re Institute.
According to Swiss Re Institute’s World Insurance sigma, following a strong 2024, growth in the global insurance industry is slowing in both life and non-life sectors.
Overall, it forecasts just 2% year-on-year total premium growth in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, about half the growth rate of 2024.
After delivering 6.1% premium growth in 2024, the institute said it expects life insurance premiums will slow significantly to 1% growth as interest rates moderate, with growth to improve to 2.4% in 2026.
At the same time, it added insurers’ profitability outlook remains positive due to continuing gains in investment income.
In non-life insurance, the reinsurer maintained intensifying competition in personal lines and softening market conditions across commercial lines, driving significantly lower premium growth, down to 2.6% this year from 4.7% in 2024.
According to the institute, global growth is decelerating as US tariff policy reduces trade and heightens uncertainty, with consumers and firms likely already having begun cutting spending and investments in response to the uncertainty, which may not be fully visible in the economic data yet.
The reinsurer said it expects global GDP growth, when inflation adjusted, to slow to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 from 2.8% in 2024, while the global insurance industry is expected to follow the trend with total premiums expected to slow to 2% this year from 5.2% in 2024, picking up marginally to 2.3% in 2026.
Jérôme Haegeli, group chief economist at Swiss Re, said: “While insurers’ profitability outlook is still benefiting from rising investment income, we expect tariffs to slow global GDP growth, and consequently weigh on insurance demand.
“In the long term, US tariff policy is another move towards more market fragmentation, which would reduce the affordability and availability of insurance, and so diminish global risk resilience.”
