The number of people living with cancer could hit 5.4 million people by the year 2045.
This is according to a report which draws on Scottish Widows’ actuarial expertise and is informed by Macmillan’s insight and experience supporting people living with cancer, to project how cancer prevalence in the UK is expected to change between the years 2025 and 2045.
The report points to a projected 58% increase in cancer prevalence across the UK over that period – resulting in a projected 5.4 million people living with cancer, compared to 3.4 million today.
This also means that by 2045, around 7% to 8% of the population in each UK nation will be living with cancer, compared with around 5% today.
The increases will be partly driven by population growth and ageing, and due to people living longer after diagnosis, but are also linked to increases in the likelihood of being diagnosed with cancer over time for certain age groups and types of cancer.
Four most prevalent cancers
The projections point to four most prevalent types of cancer in the UK in 2045, which include female breast cancer (1.4 million women and people assigned female at birth), prostate cancer (1.1 million men and people assigned male at birth), colorectal cancer (580,000 people) and melanoma (558,000 people).
While lung cancer remains one of the most common types of cancer in the UK in terms of new diagnoses each year, it has a substantially lower survival rate than these other four cancer types, which explains why it accounts for a lower proportion of total cancer prevalence.
Regional breakdown
Breaking down the data by UK nation, around 4.6 million people in England are projected to be living with cancer by the year 2045, followed by 448,000 in Scotland, 236,000 in Wales and 146,000 in Northern Ireland.
In England, the number of women and people assigned female at birth living with breast cancer is set to hit 1.18 million, up from 786,000, while people living with prostate cancer is projected to rise to 956,000 from 510,000, colorectal cancer up to 485,000 from 317,000 and melanoma 469,000 from 212,000.
In Scotland, the projections point to 118,000 women and people assigned female at birth living with breast cancer by 2045, up from 81,000, 92,000 people with prostate cancer from 48,000, 52,000 with colorectal cancer from 37,000 and 46,000 with melanoma from 24,000.
In Wales, 67,000 women and people assigned female at birth are expected to be living with breast cancer, up from 47,000, 56,000 with prostate cancer from 34,000, 30,000 with colorectal cancer from 21,000 and 29,000 with melanoma from 14,000.
And in Northern Ireland, around 38,000 and people assigned female at birth are expected to be living with breast cancer, up from 24,000, 33,000 with prostate cancer from 16,000, 18,000 with colorectal cancer from 11,000 and 14,000 with melanoma from 7,000.
Pivotal moment
Professor Richard Simcock, chief medical officer at Macmillan Cancer Support, said: “This new report, and the projections underpinning it, provide an invaluable resource for healthcare systems, policymakers and cancer charities to think about how we can best support living with cancer in the decades to come.
“This report comes at a pivotal moment for cancer care in the UK. We are proud to have been involved in the development of the new National Cancer Plan for England, joining Scotland and Northern Ireland in bold ambitions to revolutionise care and treatment. Cancer is experienced in homes, workplaces and communities, not just in hospitals, and support must meet people where they are.
“By understanding the scale and impact of cancer today and in the years ahead, we can advocate for the system‑wide change needed to ensure everyone gets the support they deserve.
“Through our services, from our Support Line to our work with all four governments in the UK, we remain committed to ensuring that every person living with cancer in the UK, now and tomorrow, receives the best support available.”
Every experience is unique
Rose St Louis, protection director at Scottish Widows, said: “Every person’s experience of cancer is unique, but I believe there’s one thing we can make universal: removing money worries from an already overwhelming time.
“That starts with planning early and being willing to have those uncomfortable conversations before life forces them upon us. And with an additional two million people projected to be living with cancer by 2045, our collective responsibilities, personal, professional, legal and regulatory, have never been clearer. We cannot sleepwalk into this future; preparation must start now.
“It remains a privilege to work with Macmillan on research that has the potential to make such a meaningful difference. By combining our expertise with their extraordinary insight, we can help more people feel informed, supported and financially prepared for whatever the future brings.”
