The widespread adoption of weight loss drugs could cut premature death rates in the UK and US over the next two decades.
This is according to research from Swiss Re which showed under optimistic scenarios, Swiss Re projects that GLP-1 medications could reduce all-cause mortality in the US by as much as 6.4% by 2045, and by more than 5% in the UK.
Strong uptake
The research focuses on the US and UK, where obesity rates are high, and where there has been a strong uptake of these drugs.
Obesity is now linked to seven of the 10 leading causes of death – including ischemic heart disease, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease as well as many cancers. Researchers conclude that by improving baseline risk factors, GLP-1 drugs may contribute to mortality improvements over time, saving millions from premature death.
Optimistic scenarios
The report’s optimistic scenario depends on a broad uptake of GLP-1 therapies and people adhering to treatment. However, the report notes that it will require people implementing lifestyle changes that support long-term health improvements. Without these changes, studies have shown that weight regain and rebound effects are common, with full weight regain possible within a year after patients discontinue these drugs.
More pessimistic scenarios
Swiss Re’s modelling also puts forward more cautious outcomes. In a pessimistic scenario, there is limited uptake in the population, high discontinuation rates especially due to side effects, and widespread weight regain after treatment finishes. Under these conditions, researchers expect much more limited improvements, with US cumulative mortality reductions of just 2.3%, and 1.8% for the UK by 2045.
Significant promise
Paul Murray, CEO of life and health reinsurance at Swiss Re, said: “GLP-1 drugs hold significant promise to help us beat the obesity epidemic.
“Our research underscores that the full benefit will come from going beyond medication.
“As insurers, we are in a position to build partnerships, support policy and encourage people to make meaningful lifestyle changes with a focus on prevention. If we get this right, we can strengthen the insurance safety net and contribute to people living longer, healthier lives.”
Natalie Kelly, head of life and health global underwriting, claims and research and development at Swiss Re, added: “GLP-1 drugs could be the medical innovation we’ve been waiting for to reshape mortality trends.
“The flow-on effect for underwriting assumptions and claims patterns could therefore be significant. It is essential that insurers keep ahead of the GLP-1 evolution, and maintain a robust, evidence-based approach to assessing the risks.”
